There are three stages of this: collapse, bounce-back, and slog.
When the US economy begins to recover, former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers says there will be winners and losers. The recovery will be more bearable for the rich than the poor. He believes the recovery includes three stages: collapse, bounce-back, and slog. We’ve experienced collapse and bounce-back already. “Now we’re headed for a slog,” he says, “where we’re going to play mediocre wack-a-mole [with the virus] in the US and other parts of the world.” He thinks a recovery will be tepid until a vaccine is developed that “returns us to normal.” When July 4th of next year rolls around, he says it won’t resemble 2019’s healthy economy but will be better than that of 2020. In a conversation with Gillian Tett, US editor-at-large of the Financial Times, he talks about the Federal Government’s decisions during the pandemic, including passage of the CARES Act, the behavior of the stock market, and how the economic situation is exacerbating social tensions.
This conversation, held in August 2020, was part of the Aspen Security Forum presented by the Aspen Strategy Group.
As a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization, the Aspen Institute is nonpartisan and does not endorse, support, or oppose political candidates or parties. Further, the views and opinions of our guests and speakers do not necessarily reflect those of the Aspen Institute.